Maharashtra is likely to witness above-normal rainfall in October as the delayed withdrawal of the southwest monsoon continues to affect central India. Officials from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicate that fresh weather systems developing over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea could trigger intermittent heavy rainfall, particularly across Konkan, western Maharashtra, and Vidarbha. Experts stress that while rainfall will be above average, distribution will vary based on the formation of low-pressure systems.
IMD forecasts, released during a virtual briefing by senior meteorology officials, highlighted that Maharashtra falls within the blue-coded zone on the agency’s rainfall map, signalling higher than normal precipitation. Certain regions, including Konkan, central Maharashtra, and Vidarbha, may even experience ‘excess’ rainfall during the month. Officials caution that this does not imply continuous rainfall throughout October, with variability expected as multiple weather systems evolve. The delayed monsoon withdrawal is attributed to a well-marked low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal, restricting the typical retreat of southwest monsoon currents. “Central India and adjacent regions will continue to receive rainfall activity until conditions favour monsoon withdrawal,” a senior IMD scientist explained. Based on current model projections, most parts of India are expected to see above-average precipitation except Jammu and Kashmir, some northwest regions, and isolated pockets in peninsular India.
Temperature trends indicate maximums may remain below normal in most regions, while minimum temperatures could be normal to slightly above average. Officials also noted that La Niña conditions persisting post-October may contribute to lower than normal winter temperatures, although core winter predictions for January and February remain uncertain. Maharashtra recorded 153 extreme weather events during the 2025 monsoon, including 135 cases of very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall, 18 lightning and thunderstorm events, and scattered flash floods. The state’s tally surpassed traditionally vulnerable Himalayan regions like Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir, though remained lower than Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Urban flooding in Mumbai and Pune, swollen rivers in Konkan, and crop damage in Marathwada underscored the rainfall-driven nature of the state’s climate risks, prompting calls for enhanced flood management, urban drainage, and agricultural resilience measures.
With new weather systems forming—one over Saurashtra and the Gulf of Kutch and another over central Bay of Bengal—Maharashtra may see light to moderate showers from October 2 onwards. Pune residents could experience light rainfall on Dussehra, October 2, according to regional meteorology officials, adding caution for festival-time celebrations. Experts emphasise that proactive planning, particularly in urban areas and flood-prone regions, remains crucial. Above-normal rainfall offers both opportunities for replenishing water reserves and challenges in managing urban infrastructure, transport, and agriculture sustainably.
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