India Tracks Growing Steel Sector Coal Risks As Blast Furnace Expansion Continues Rapidly
India’s steel sector is facing increasing energy security challenges as blast furnace expansion drives higher demand for metallurgical coal. With nearly 90% of its requirements imported—primarily from Australia—producers are exposed to rising supply, climate, and financial risks abroad. Analysts warn that continued reliance on imported coal could trigger structural price pressures, while domestic initiatives in scrap steel recycling and green hydrogen are emerging as strategic alternatives for long-term resilience.
The country’s reliance on Australian metallurgical coal has become a strategic concern. Australia, the world’s leading exporter, is experiencing rising operational, regulatory, and climate pressures that threaten future output. Industry experts note that past export forecasts have consistently been overestimated, with actual shipments falling short. Additionally, mining expansion is slowing, as companies favour acquisitions over navigating increasingly stringent environmental approvals and lengthy project timelines.Environmental and climate-related risks are amplifying supply uncertainties. Methane emissions from Australian coal operations are under greater scrutiny, and regulatory targets for emission reductions could constrain new mine development. Seasonal flooding and extreme rainfall events in Queensland, Australia’s largest producing region, also disrupt logistics and have the potential to sharply spike costs. Combined with rising labour and operational expenses, these factors could translate into persistent price pressures for Indian steelmakers.
Financial constraints are further shaping the sector’s future. Banks in Australia and other major markets are increasingly cautious about lending to new metallurgical coal projects, reflecting a global pivot towards low-carbon steel production. Carbon capture technology has yet to offer a commercially viable solution for blast furnace emissions, leaving traditional coal-based steelmaking exposed to long-term financial and environmental risk. Analysts argue that without strategic shifts, Indian producers could face structural cost disadvantages relative to emerging green steel markets.Domestically, alternatives are gaining traction. Scrap steel recycling through electric arc furnaces presents a circular, low-carbon source of material, reducing dependency on imports. While significant volumes will take time to accumulate, developing collection, processing, and logistics infrastructure now positions India to capitalise on this growing resource. Similarly, green hydrogen offers a domestic, carbon-light alternative for steelmaking. India’s abundant renewable energy potential allows cost-competitive production, and prioritising its use for domestic steel could safeguard energy security while supporting the sector’s decarbonisation pathway.
These developments highlight a broader industrial transition. Shifting away from imported metallurgical coal not only mitigates supply and price risks but also aligns India’s steel sector with global low-carbon trends. For policymakers and industry leaders, accelerating the adoption of scrap recycling and hydrogen-based steel production is emerging as a crucial strategy to ensure the sector remains resilient, competitive, and environmentally sustainable in the decades ahead.
