India’s steel industry is unlikely to accelerate into a low-carbon future in the near term, with transition to green steel characterised as a long-term aspiration rather than an imminent industrial overhaul, according to credit rating agency ICRA. The assessment highlights structural and economic constraints rooted in current production practices, suggesting that while sustainability goals are formally acknowledged, meaningful decarbonisation will unfold gradually over the coming decade and beyond.
The ratings agency notes that the Indian steel sector’s planned capacity additions over the next few years are predominantly anchored in coal-intensive blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) technology, which currently accounts for a rising share of total output. This entrenched reliance implies that, despite growing awareness of climate imperatives, carbon emissions per tonne of steel will remain significantly above global averages through the 2030s without deeper technological change. Efforts to reduce carbon intensity in the near term are expected to centre on renewable energy integration and operational improvements, such as energy efficiency measures and the adoption of captive solar and wind power at plant level. These measures can potentially lower emissions by around 19 per cent by 2030, but still fall short of the stringent benchmarks typically associated with “green steel”, which involve emissions well below 0.5 tonne of CO₂ per tonne of steel produced.
One major constraint to a faster pivot towards low-carbon steel is the limited availability of electric arc furnace (EAF) capacity, which relies on scrap metal feedstock that is currently in short supply in India. Additionally, emerging technologies such as green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) remain economically unviable at current cost levels, with production economics dependent on hydrogen prices falling significantly from present rates. These technological and cost barriers compound the challenge of scaling green steel capacity in the medium term. From an urban development and infrastructure perspective, this measured transition carries both risks and opportunities. The steel sector underpins construction, manufacturing and transport infrastructure — all critical to India’s urbanisation trajectory. While rapid decarbonisation would enhance climate resilience in cities, the continued dominance of conventional steelmaking methods suggests that industry emissions will persist as a significant contributor to urban air quality and carbon footprints in industrial corridors.
At the same time, the recognition that demand for greener steel is expected to accelerate post-2030, driven by tightening global environmental standards and customer preference for low-carbon inputs, provides a roadmap for future investment. Large end-user sectors such as automotive, infrastructure and capital goods are gradually factoring sustainability criteria into supply chain decisions, which could incentivise innovation in steelmaking technologies. Policy frameworks — including India’s Green Steel Taxonomy, introduced as part of broader decarbonisation strategies — aim to clarify emission thresholds and encourage graded progress towards greener production practices. However, translating regulatory intent into industrial reality will require coordinated investment in technology, skill development and supply chain readiness.
For stakeholders in the built environment, this analysis underscores the importance of adopting lifecycle carbon accounting and engaging with emerging low-carbon steel products, even as traditional output continues to meet immediate demand. Realising India’s green steel ambitions will hinge not only on technological breakthroughs but also on aligning policy incentives, market demand and investment flows — a process likely to unfold over the next decade rather than overnight.
