The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-average rainfall for India in July, bringing much-needed relief after an exceptionally hot June. According to the IMD, the monsoon is expected to cover the entire country ahead of its usual schedule, with an 80 per cent probability of normal to above-normal precipitation throughout the month.
The IMD’s projections indicate that Delhi, in particular, will experience heavy to extremely heavy rainfall. This weather pattern is attributed to the La Niña conditions, which are favourable for monsoon rainfall in India and are expected to persist through August and September.The forecast of a robust monsoon is a welcome development for India, where many regions experienced extreme heat in June. The IMD reported that June 2023 was the warmest June in Northwest India since 1901. The month also saw below-normal rainfall, with a monsoon deficit reaching a five-year high of 11 per cent.
During the monsoon season, June typically contributes about 15 per cent of the total annual rainfall of 87 cm. While the monsoon arrived early in Kerala and the northeast on May 30, its progression stalled after reaching Maharashtra. This delay exacerbated heat waves in northwest India and extended dry conditions in states such as West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh.The country experienced 16 consecutive days of below-normal rainfall from June 11 to June 27, resulting in an overall precipitation shortfall. However, the IMD’s forecast suggests a significant turnaround in July, with below-normal rainfall expected in northeast India, normal rainfall in the northwest, and above-normal rainfall in the central and southern peninsular regions.
Particularly noteworthy is the forecast for the core monsoon zone, which is vital for Indian agriculture as it encompasses 52 per cent of the country’s cultivated land. Above-normal rainfall in this area is likely to have a substantial impact on agricultural productivity, potentially benefiting farmers and the broader economy.As the monsoon season progresses, the anticipated increase in rainfall is expected to alleviate the water scarcity and heat-related challenges faced by various regions. The IMD’s optimistic forecast brings hope for a bountiful monsoon, which is crucial for India’s agrarian economy and overall climate resilience.
