The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its long-range forecast, predicting an “above normal” monsoon rainfall for India between June and September this year.
This positive outlook follows a year of below normal rains in 2023, signalling potential relief for the agricultural sector and the economy as a whole. According to the forecast, the overall volume of rainfall across the country is expected to reach 106% of the long period average (LPA), with a 5% margin of error. The IMD plans to update its prediction by the end of May to provide a more precise forecast as the monsoon season progresses. Currently, moderate El Nino conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific region. However, climate models suggest a transition to neutral conditions during the early part of the monsoon season, followed by the development of La Nina conditions later in the season. While El Nino typically correlates with warmer summers and weaker monsoon rains in India, La Nina has the opposite effect.
Historical data analysed by the IMD indicates that during most La Nina years, monsoon rainfall in India has been normal, above normal, or excess. However, the forecast still presents a range of probabilities, including a 31% chance of above normal monsoon, a 29% chance of normal monsoon, and a 30% chance of excess monsoon. The spatial distribution of rainfall suggests that above normal seasonal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, except for certain areas in northwest, east, and northeast India, where below normal rainfall is anticipated. Despite this overall forecast, it is important to note that regional disparities in rainfall distribution may still occur. For India, where nearly 70% of rainfall comes from the monsoon, this forecast carries significant economic implications, particularly for the agriculture sector. With a substantial portion of the country’s farmland relying on rain-fed irrigation, a good monsoon season can help stabilise agricultural output and keep food prices in check. While the IMD’s forecast offers hope for a favourable monsoon season, it’s essential to monitor other economic factors such as job growth and inflation trends, which can also influence the country’s overall economic outlook.
