India is preparing to significantly raise the volume of water it draws from the Indus river system, a move that could inflame tensions with Pakistan amid a stalled peace process and ongoing allegations of cross-border militancy.
The plan, linked to retaliatory actions following a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir in April, includes new dam and canal infrastructure aimed at diverting more water to Indian territory. According to sources cited by Reuters, the Indian government has initiated discussions to expand projects on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers—three of the six rivers governed by the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which allocates water rights between India and Pakistan. India suspended participation in the treaty following an April 22 attack that killed 26 civilians in Kashmir, holding Islamabad responsible despite Pakistan’s denial of involvement. A central part of Delhi’s plans is a major upgrade to the Ranbir canal, which draws from the Chenab and was built in the 19th century. The proposal could increase water flow from 40 cubic metres per second to 150, though experts estimate the expansion may take years to complete. The potential escalation comes despite a ceasefire agreement between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, and amid Pakistan’s warnings that any diversion of its allocated water would be viewed as an “act of war.”
India has long been restricted by the treaty to using the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers for limited irrigation and low-impact hydroelectric projects. However, Delhi is now actively pursuing large-scale projects to store and redirect water, which were previously considered off-limits. Government documents seen by Reuters reveal that India is evaluating five storage dam sites, four of which are on tributaries of the Chenab and Jhelum rivers. These projects, if executed, would mark India’s first large-scale water storage infrastructure within the Indus system. India’s Ministry of Power has also prepared a list of hydroelectric projects in Jammu and Kashmir aimed at tripling installed capacity from 3,360 MW to 12,000 MW. While the list predates the April attack, officials are now prioritising its implementation. Additionally, documents indicate the water from these rivers could be diverted to other basins in Punjab, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh, potentially impacting downstream flows to Pakistan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has refrained from naming the treaty directly but underscored the government’s shift in tone with a pointed statement: “Water and blood cannot flow together.”
Islamabad maintains that the treaty remains legally binding and has formally protested India’s suspension. “Water should not be used as a weapon,” said Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, calling for a return to diplomatic norms. While implementation of India’s projects may take years, the political message is immediate: water resources are now firmly embedded in the two countries’ broader strategic posturing. The next steps could redefine regional water diplomacy—and test one of the world’s longest-standing water-sharing agreements.
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