After decades of uninterrupted growth, global coal demand appears to have reached a plateau in 2025 and is set to taper off through the end of the decade, according to the latest assessment by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The report highlights a peak in coal consumption around 2025, driven by a mix of economic demand and energy use patterns, followed by an anticipated decline as renewable energy and cleaner fuels make deeper inroads into global power systems. For India, however, coal demand is projected to continue rising through 2030, underpinning the country’s evolving energy mix and industrial growth trajectory.
Global consumption climbed to a record 8.85 billion tonnes in 2025, largely sustained by demand in Asia. But the IEA forecast suggests that heightened deployment of renewables, increasing use of natural gas, and policy shifts away from coal in major economies will begin to shave demand from 2026 onwards, bringing volumes back toward 2023 levels by 2030. This represents a structural shift from the long era of rising coal use that underpinned industrialisation and power generation in much of the world’s emerging markets.The power sector remains the largest driver of coal consumption globally, but the expansion of wind, solar, and hydropower capacity — alongside energy efficiency gains — is gradually displacing coal‑fired generation. Countries in the European Union, Japan and South Korea have already seen significant contractions in coal imports and use, while China — the world’s largest coal consumer — is forecast to reduce coal use as its renewable capacity scales and grid flexibility improves.
India’s role in this global transition is distinctive. Despite the broader decline trajectory, India’s coal demand is expected to grow by roughly 3 per cent annually through 2030, adding around 200 million tonnes over the period. This growth is linked to rising electricity demand, industrial activity, and the continued centrality of coal in meeting base‑load power needs. Southeast Asian nations are also likely to see demand increases, though on a relatively smaller scale.For India’s urban and industrial planners, this divergence raises strategic choices. On one hand, coal continues to underpin energy security and supports key sectors like steel, cement and heavy manufacturing. On the other, rapid advances in renewable energy deployment, battery storage costs and grid modernisation are offering pathways to decouple growth from fossil fuel reliance, aligning with long‑term climate goals. India has already seen record expansions in solar and wind capacity, contributing to incremental reductions in coal share in the power mix.
The projected decline in global coal demand also has implications for trade flows and international markets. Countries historically reliant on coal exports may face pressure to diversify export portfolios or invest in cleaner energy technologies. Meanwhile, for India, which remains one of the largest producers and consumers of coal, balancing growth with sustainability will be a key policy challenge. Investments in carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), coupled with accelerated renewable capacity build‑out, could help reconcile energy demand with emissions targets. Analysts emphasise that the pathway to a peak and eventual decline in coal consumption will be uneven and region‑specific, shaped by economic priorities, grid readiness and climate policy commitments.
As the world enters a period of transition, India’s dual role as both a growth driver in coal demand and a leader in renewable expansion highlights the complex interplay between development imperatives and climate resilience. Policymakers will need to navigate this balance carefully to optimise energy security, economic growth and decarbonisation outcomes in the decade ahead.
