India Cement Sector Faces Cost Pressure And Capacity Challenges After Expansion Spree
India’s cement sector enters 2026 facing a strategic shift from aggressive expansion to operational efficiency. After years of high-profile acquisitions and capacity additions, major players like UltraTech and Ambuja Cements are now prioritising cost reduction, asset utilisation, and logistics optimisation. With total industry capacity projected to rise by nearly 75% over the next three years and pricing power remaining weak, the focus will be on improving margins, strengthening market share, and maximising recently acquired assets amid uneven regional demand.
Executives and industry experts expect the year ahead to be defined by operational discipline rather than mergers and acquisitions. “The emphasis will shift more to optimising and monetising existing or recently acquired assets,” said a senior ratings official. Cement makers are likely to focus on fuel efficiency, supply chain optimisation, and leveraging economies of scale to enhance competitiveness.Ambuja Cements has set a clear benchmark, targeting a 5% reduction in production cost per tonne by March 2026. UltraTech Cement and other large players are anticipated to pursue similar strategies, ensuring that cost management offsets weak pricing trends. Analysts say sustained margin improvement will increasingly rely on operational efficiency rather than price hikes, as market conditions continue to limit pricing power.
While consolidation characterised the past three years—with deals such as Adani’s acquisition of Holcim India and UltraTech’s purchase of Kesoram and India Cements—the intensity of mergers and acquisitions is expected to taper. Future acquisitions are likely to focus on regional players holding strategic limestone reserves, leaving smaller firms vulnerable to competitive pressures. In southern India, for instance, top players’ market share has risen sharply, intensifying challenges for mid-sized producers.Capacity expansion is accelerating despite slower deal activity. UltraTech aims to reach 240 million tonnes per annum by FY28, while Ambuja Cements plans 155 million tonnes, bringing combined industry capacity close to 300 MTPA. Crisil projects incremental cement demand of 30–40 million tonnes annually over FY26–28, with utilisation gradually recovering to around 70% by FY28. Short-term imbalances are expected, particularly in southern states, where utilisation remains below 62%.
Pricing gains will remain limited, with analysts projecting at most 1.5–2% increases over FY27–28. This underscores the imperative for efficiency-focused strategies, ensuring that assets operate at optimal levels while supporting steady supply for housing and infrastructure growth. For India’s cement sector, the coming year represents a shift from expansionist ambitions to meticulous execution, operational resilience, and sustainable urban development.
