India Cement Aluminium Growth Challenges Net Zero Transition
India’s projected surge in cement and aluminium production over the next decades, while underpinning economic growth and employment, presents a formidable test of the nation’s net zero climate objectives. With cement expected to more than quadruple by 2047 and aluminium output set for multi-fold increases, policymakers and industry face a pivotal challenge: reconciling industrial scale-up with deep decarbonisation. This balancing act holds implications for energy planning, urban infrastructure demand and trade competitiveness in carbon-conscious markets.
According to a recent assessment by a national policy think-tank, India’s cement sector — already energy-intensive and process-driven — could see emissions rise sharply if conventional production paths persist. The roadmap highlights that the industry’s greenhouse gas intensity stems largely from calcination and fuel combustion, and proposes interventions such as expanding the use of refuse-derived fuels and increasing clinker substitutes to mitigate emissions. Aluminium manufacturing, another cornerstone of infrastructure and urban growth, likewise presents decarbonisation challenges. With over three-quarters of emissions tied to electricity generation used in smelting, the sector’s expansion trajectory underscores the urgency of integrating cleaner power sources. The policy blueprint suggests utilising renewable energy in the short term and exploring advanced options such as nuclear power and carbon capture in later phases.
These industrial ambitions come as India’s overall industrial sector already accounts for nearly a quarter of national greenhouse gas emissions, with cement, aluminium and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) jointly contributing a significant share. Experts warn that without structural interventions, rising output could overshadow gains from energy efficiency improvements and fuel switching, making it harder to align with India’s climate commitments, including a 45 per cent reduction in emission intensity by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2070. Urban planners and sustainability analysts emphasise that these industrial pathways are not only about climate metrics but are deeply entwined with urban futures. Cement and aluminium underpin critical infrastructure — from housing and transit systems to energy grids and public buildings. Ensuring these materials are produced with lower carbon footprints can improve the sustainability of expanding cities and reduce long-term environmental liabilities.
Investment needs are substantial. Independent studies estimate that achieving net-zero emissions in heavy-industry sectors could require tens of billions of dollars in additional capital expenditure, particularly to shift toward renewable energy and deploy advanced technologies like carbon capture and storage. Finance and policy interventions — including targeted subsidies, access to green capital and regulatory incentives — will be crucial in bridging capability gaps, especially for dispersed MSME clusters that lack scale and technical capacity. Trade and market dynamics add another layer of impetus. As global buyers increasingly factor embedded carbon into procurement and regulatory regimes like carbon border adjustments emerge in key markets, Indian industrial competitiveness will hinge on measurable decarbonisation outcomes.
The coming decade will be a defining period for India’s industrial strategy. Aligning growth with climate resilience requires coordinated action across energy systems, finance, and technology deployment. What unfolds in cement and aluminium sectors could signal the viability of India’s broader transition to a low-carbon, inclusive industrial economy.
