The first quarter of fiscal year 2024 has marked a significant downturn for engineering, research, and development (ER&D) companies, reflecting broader challenges within the automotive sector and the wider economy. Following a period of robust growth, several leading ER&D firms are now grappling with a sharp decline in demand, particularly in Europe, due to slower adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and escalating cost pressures.
The automotive industry’s slowdown has been exacerbated by macroeconomic issues, including high inflation and interest rates, which are driving up material and vehicle costs. This economic environment has adversely affected the investment outlook for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), with expectations for 2024 now tempered by declining demand. “The investment outlook for OEMs was initially optimistic for 2024, but current results reveal a slowdown primarily driven by high prices and economic uncertainties,” noted an analyst from a domestic brokerage firm.
Among the notable casualties of this downturn are major ER&D service providers such as L&T Technology Services and Tata Technologies. These companies, which predominantly serve the automotive sector, have reported sequential declines in revenue. L&T Technology Services experienced a 3.3% drop in its topline, Tata Technologies saw a 2.9% decrease, CyientDET reported a 5.4% plunge, and HCLTech ERS faced a 3.7% fall in dollar revenue.
KPIT’s CEO highlighted the sector’s varied challenges, stating that while there are significant headwinds, particularly for passenger cars, overall vehicle sales may remain flat or decline. The automotive sector is facing inflationary pressures and high-interest rates, compounded by reduced EV subsidies in Germany and slower economic growth across major European markets. The recent US economic data has also heightened recession concerns.
Moreover, the rise of global capability centres (GCCs) is shifting dynamics in the ER&D sector. OEMs are increasingly opting to keep work in-house for cost optimisation rather than outsourcing to traditional ER&D service providers. This trend adds another layer of complexity to the industry’s recovery prospects. Looking ahead, analysts remain hopeful for a sector rebound in the coming year, contingent on potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and European central banks. This anticipated recovery is expected to be driven by easing macroeconomic conditions and renewed investment in the automotive and ER&D sectors.
