India’s commercial vehicle sector is poised for a revival as the average age of medium and heavy commercial trucks (M&HCVs) on Indian roads reaches a two-decade high of 10 years. This ageing fleet, shaped by delayed purchases during the pandemic and sluggish vehicle sales since, is expected to unlock a significant wave of replacement-led demand in FY26, with manufacturers gearing up for a long-anticipated rebound.
This ageing fleet, shaped by delayed purchases during the pandemic and sluggish vehicle sales since, is expected to unlock a significant wave of replacement-led demand in FY26, with manufacturers gearing up for a long-anticipated rebound.According to industry estimates, the average age of trucks in operation has steadily risen over the last few years, exacerbated by a dip in new vehicle purchases as fleet operators tightened capital during COVID-19. Credit ratings agency ICRA notes that truck sales in FY25 declined by 4% year-on-year, after remaining largely flat in FY24. This has left the domestic fleet older than ever—a development that industry leaders believe will catalyse a demand surge for newer, cleaner, and more efficient trucks.
Commercial vehicle giants are already preparing for this transition. Ashok Leyland’s Managing Director and CEO, Shenu Agarwal, stated that the high vehicle age will inevitably lead to accelerated fleet replacement. “The market outlook for FY26 is positive, primarily because fleet operators cannot delay purchases indefinitely. With the current vehicle vintage at historic highs, M&HCV replacements are imminent,” Agarwal said.Fleet renewal is being further driven by modern logistical realities. Vinod Aggarwal, MD & CEO of Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles, highlighted that the new generation of trucks now cover up to 20,000 km monthly—double the mileage managed by older vehicles. This superior efficiency, enabled by advanced telematics and stronger road infrastructure, is pushing logistics operators to consider cost-effective, sustainable upgrades.
Despite this tailwind, the industry is still catching up to its peak performance. In FY25, India’s M&HCV segment closed at 2.48 lakh units, still trailing its pre-pandemic high of 2.95 lakh units in FY19. Notably, replacement purchases now account for roughly 60% of total truck sales, and this figure is expected to rise as operators seek to optimise costs, reduce emissions, and improve delivery turnaround.The looming fleet overhaul also comes at a time when India’s transport ecosystem is undergoing structural transformation—urban freight corridors, electrification pilots, and sustainable logistics policies are all gaining momentum. The prospect of phasing out older, more polluting diesel trucks aligns with broader net-zero goals, even as the government eyes a greener logistics chain to support its urbanisation and infrastructure agenda.
But this transition isn’t without its challenges. High financing costs, regional demand disparities, and a gradual economic recovery continue to temper industry expectations. Manufacturers, however, remain cautiously optimistic, banking on rising freight volumes, enhanced fuel economy in newer models, and regulatory nudges to push adoption.
As cities like Chennai continue expanding logistics networks to support fast urbanisation and industrial growth, a rejuvenated truck fleet could improve not just transport efficiency but also air quality and urban health. The current demand cycle, while rooted in vehicle obsolescence, may well become the catalyst for a cleaner, smarter freight future.
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