India’s residential property investment landscape is undergoing a quiet but consequential shift. Long-term price data now shows that several emerging and peripheral cities are delivering stronger returns than the country’s most visible metropolitan markets, signalling a redistribution of real estate value beyond Mumbai and Delhi’s saturated cores.
According to national housing price indices tracking a decade of residential performance, cities traditionally considered secondary markets have outpaced larger metros in cumulative price appreciation. Bhubaneswar has emerged as the strongest long-term performer, followed closely by Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar. These cities have recorded growth rates that exceed those seen in many established metropolitan centres over the same period, reflecting a structural rather than cyclical change in demand patterns. This rebalancing is being reinforced by the Union Budget 2026, which has raised public capital expenditure to Rs 12.2 lakh crore with a clear emphasis on infrastructure-led growth. Urban economists point out that sustained investment in highways, metro rail systems, logistics corridors and industrial clusters is compressing travel times and expanding functional city boundaries, making housing markets in Tier-2 and peripheral regions more investable. Metro-adjacent markets such as Gurgaon, Greater Noida and Navi Mumbai have benefited disproportionately from this trend. Their returns over shorter time frames including five-year and one-year windows highlight how improved connectivity and employment concentration can rapidly translate into residential price growth. In contrast, several large metros have shown comparatively moderate appreciation, constrained by land scarcity, affordability pressures and slower infrastructure absorption.
The data also highlights a growing divergence within cities. While ultra-luxury transactions in central business districts continue to attract headlines, the bulk of investment returns are increasingly being generated in expansion corridors and satellite regions where housing supply aligns better with middle-income demand. Urban planners argue this shift could ease pressure on overburdened city cores, provided infrastructure delivery keeps pace with population inflows. Industry bodies have welcomed the government’s continued focus on infrastructure but have flagged concerns around the shrinking share of affordable housing. Rising construction costs and land prices, without targeted policy support, risk excluding lower-income households from emerging growth centres. Analysts caution that without parallel investment in social infrastructure schools, healthcare and public spaces rapid residential expansion could recreate the very urban stresses these new corridors are meant to relieve. Looking ahead, the convergence of infrastructure spending, decentralised job creation and rising investor confidence suggests that India’s housing growth story will increasingly be written outside its traditional metros.
For policymakers and city administrations, the challenge now is to ensure that this transition delivers not just higher returns, but more balanced, resilient and inclusive urban development.
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