Assams Vanishing Rains A Climate Crisis the Northeast Can No Longer Ignore
Assam is grappling with a harsh and persistent climate reality—its skies are staying stubbornly dry. The state recorded a drastic 34% rainfall deficit in June, the very month that typically marks the beginning of a robust agricultural cycle. Instead of sowing seeds in hope, farmers across Assam are staring into parched fields and cloudy uncertainty.
According to data released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Assam received only 272 mm of rainfall in June against a long-term average of 415.2 mm. This deficit is not just a blip—it is part of a growing and worrying trend. The western districts have been hit the hardest, with Bajali logging a 77% shortfall, Darrang 76%, and South Salmara 72%. Even districts in eastern Assam, which typically enjoy more consistent rainfall, have not been spared. Dibrugarh posted a 56% deficit, while Golaghat fell behind by 37%.
The drought-like conditions aren’t confined to Assam alone. The larger Northeast region is also suffering. Meghalaya recorded a 46% rainfall shortfall in June, and Arunachal Pradesh saw a 40% deficit. If July follows the same pattern, the Assam-Meghalaya subdivision is looking at its fifth consecutive year of below-normal monsoon rainfall—a record that paints a grim picture of climate persistence, not variability.
The wider context makes this all the more alarming. While the rest of India has been forecast to receive normal to above-normal monsoon rains this year, the Northeast remains in a stubborn rain shadow. This regional disparity highlights the uneven and unpredictable nature of climate change impacts across India.
But the consequences for Assam are particularly severe. Rainfall is not merely a seasonal phenomenon here—it is the cornerstone of the state’s agricultural economy. A majority of the rural population depends on monsoon-fed farming, and rainfall deficits directly translate to lower soil moisture, shrinking water supplies for irrigation, poor crop yields, and an amplified risk to food security. The fallout doesn’t stop at the farmgate. Forest ecosystems, biodiversity reserves, and livestock also suffer quietly under the prolonged dry spells.
This is more than just a failed monsoon. It is part of a longer-term climatic shift. Scientists point toward the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)—a slow-moving oceanic temperature pattern that significantly affects rainfall distribution over decades. India’s heartland may be entering a ‘positive epoch’ marked by higher rainfall, but the Northeast seems trapped in a ‘negative epoch’—a phase of multi-decade reduced rain. If this theory holds, what Assam and its neighbours are experiencing may not be an anomaly, but the new normal.
Globally, the climate indicators only reinforce this fear. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80% probability that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest ever recorded, likely surpassing the extremes of 2024. Heat domes—high-pressure zones that trap heat for days or even weeks—are becoming more frequent and intense. Europe is already in the grip of relentless heatwaves. These aren’t just statistics—they are signals of a warming planet that is increasingly discarding its old climate rhythms.
Against this backdrop, Assam’s shrinking monsoon is not just a regional issue—it is a flashing red warning light. As temperatures rise and rainfall patterns destabilize, the ecological and economic fragility of the Northeast is being brutally exposed. The region’s reliance on monsoon-fed agriculture and its limited water storage infrastructure only worsen its vulnerability. There are no quick fixes—what’s needed is a fundamental rethinking of how we prepare for, manage, and mitigate the impacts of climate variability.
This includes large-scale investment in water storage and irrigation infrastructure, the promotion of drought-resistant crops, early warning systems for farmers, and a serious push for diversifying livelihoods away from rain-dependent agriculture. Most critically, climate action plans must be localised. The Northeast can’t be lumped into national averages that hide the extent of its crisis. Its topography, cultural context, and ecological systems demand region-specific strategies.
So far, however, the policy response has been tepid. Rainfall deficits are still treated as isolated blips rather than part of a sustained crisis. That needs to change—urgently. Five straight years of reduced monsoon rainfall isn’t a statistical coincidence. It is a call to action. Assam’s disappearing rains signal more than seasonal loss—they portend a shifting climate order. One the state, and the region, can no longer afford to ignore.
