Ahmedabad is rapidly approaching a housing crisis unlike any it has encountered before. By 2050, the city’s population is set to grow exponentially, reaching 12.43 million residents. To accommodate this surge, a staggering 3.1 million new housing units will be necessary. This alarming revelation comes from a doctoral study by, an assistant professor at the architecture department of MS University, Vadodara.
Her research, conducted as part of her PhD at Ahmedabad University, reveals that this unprecedented housing demand will place immense pressure on the city’s infrastructure, environment, and resources. Trivedi’s study paints a grim picture, predicting that the total constructed floor area in Ahmedabad will expand from the base year of 2015 to a massive 252.5 million square meters by 2050. The shift in housing patterns will be substantial, with independent houses expected to account for just 30.2% of the total built area, while flats will dominate the landscape, making up 69.7% of the constructed area. This shift reflects broader global trends towards high-density urban living but raises serious concerns about its environmental cost.
The implications of this growth are not confined to the housing market alone. To meet the demand for construction materials, Ahmedabad will require vast quantities of raw materials, including 45.6 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cement, 13.3 MMT of steel, and 150 MMT of bricks. This colossal demand will result in the construction of 165.8 million square meters of new floor space – 1.4 times the space built in 2015. But perhaps the most concerning aspect of this development is the environmental impact. According to Trivedi’s study, the rapid urbanisation will contribute to more than half of the carbon emissions from new buildings by 2050. It is estimated that emissions from construction materials alone will hit 178.1 MMT by 2050, more than double the emissions levels recorded in 2015.
The study further reveals that cement production will be responsible for the bulk of these emissions, contributing an estimated 102.2 MMT. Steel and brick manufacturing will account for 52.7 MMT and 23.2 MMT of emissions, respectively. she explains that while high-rise buildings offer a more efficient use of land, they require substantially more steel and cement, both of which are among the most carbon-intensive materials used in construction. Without the adoption of sustainable construction practices, the environmental consequences of this rapid urban expansion could be catastrophic.
“High-rise buildings might reduce land usage, but they significantly increase the environmental footprint due to the materials required,” she notes. She suggests that the environmental impact of such projects could be mitigated if the land beneath these high-rises is treated as a carbon sink. Green spaces, landscaping, and urban farming could help offset the carbon emissions associated with new construction. However, she stresses that this can only be achieved if urban planners enforce a balanced mix of mid-rise and high-rise buildings, integrated with green infrastructure. Her research also calls for a reevaluation of urban planning strategies. Authorities like the Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority (AUDA) must adopt more holistic approaches to urban development, ensuring that both environmental sustainability and efficient land use go hand in hand. Without these measures, Ahmedabad’s expansion could result in irreversible environmental damage.
In light of these findings, it is clear that Ahmedabad’s future is at a crossroads. As the city prepares to accommodate millions of new residents, it must carefully balance the demand for housing with the urgent need for sustainable practices. The choices made now will shape not only the city’s skyline but also its environmental legacy for generations to come.
