India Cement Output Set To Surge Sevenfold By 2070
India’s cement industry — a cornerstone of infrastructure and urban development — is poised for unprecedented expansion over the next five decades, with production projected to climb from around 391 million tonnes in 2023 to roughly 2,100 million tonnes by 2070, according to a new strategic analysis by the country’s premier policy think-tank. This anticipated seven-fold growth underscores the urgency of aligning industrial scale-up with climate commitments, as the sector grapples with its outsized carbon footprint amid rapid urbanisation and infrastructure demand.
The long-term forecast is part of a broader decarbonisation roadmap that charts pathways for cement, aluminium and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), framed to balance India’s push for economic transformation with its pledge to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070. Cement manufacturing, a notably emissions-intensive industry, must substantially reduce carbon intensity — from an estimated 0.63 tonnes CO₂ equivalent per tonne of cement today to about 0.09–0.13 tonnes by 2070 — while meeting surging demand. Planners recognise that such growth is underpinned by India’s infrastructure agenda, which includes mass housing, transport corridors and smart city initiatives. Industry analysts say cement’s pivotal role in construction means its trajectory will mirror the pace of national capital expenditure and private sector investment in buildings, roads, metro systems and logistics hubs. However, cement’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions — both from thermal energy use and process emissions from clinker production — presents a core sustainability challenge.
To decouple sector growth from environmental harm, the roadmap proposes a layered strategy. This includes refuse-derived fuels and alternative raw materials to replace coal, increased substitution of clinker with lower-carbon binders, and scaling up Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) technologies. Additionally, policy levers such as a Carbon Credit Trading Scheme are recommended to make deep decarbonisation economically viable for producers. Experts and urban planners argue that successfully lowering the sector’s carbon intensity will not only reduce industrial greenhouse gas emissions but also mitigate urban air pollution, a persistent health risk in India’s rapidly growing cities. By embedding low-carbon solutions into industrial operations, the construction ecosystem can support climate-resilient urban growth without undermining material supply for infrastructure expansion.
While the roadmaps set ambitious targets, realising them will hinge on robust public-private collaboration, financing mechanisms for cleaner technologies, and regulatory certainty. Analysts point to these frameworks as necessary to transform the cement sector’s growth trajectory into one that supports equitable and environmentally responsible development — a prerequisite for India’s broader urban and economic ambitions.
