India Cement Sector Faces Input Costs And Price Pressure
The Indian cement sector is showing early signs of recovery, though pricing pressures persist, according to a recent analysis by domestic brokerage JM Financial. Pan-India cement prices in December 2025 fell slightly to ₹334 per bag, representing a modest 2–2.5 per cent quarterly decline. Regional variations were notable, with Eastern and Southern markets witnessing sharper reductions of 3–4 per cent, reflecting the uneven impact of the non-trade segment on overall pricing.
Despite the marginal dip in prices, demand is estimated to have grown in the low double digits year-on-year (Y-o-Y) for December 2025, driven by steady construction activity across multiple regions. For the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (Q3FY26), this translates into high single-digit Y-o-Y growth, a significant improvement over the first half’s mid-single-digit expansion. Analysts highlight that sequential profitability gains, which typically range between ₹150–200 per tonne, are likely to remain below historical norms in the current quarter, constrained by input cost pressures.JM Financial points to rising input costs as a key factor shaping near-term margins. Petcoke, a critical energy source for cement production, has seen costs increase by roughly ₹50 per tonne, equivalent to ₹3 per bag, with the financial impact expected to be reflected in late Q4 inventory. Brokers also note that announced price hikes of ₹10–40 per bag for January 2026 may face limited absorption, delaying a meaningful price recovery until April 2026, after seasonal volume surges subside and focus shifts back to profitability.
Among listed players, UltraTech Cement is identified as a top pick, with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of ₹14,250 per share. The recommendation reflects the company’s extensive pan-India footprint, efficient supply chain, and ability to navigate cost pressures while maintaining margins. Sector analysts observe that large-scale cement producers play a pivotal role in urban development, influencing both residential and infrastructure projects, and that stable operations are essential for sustained investment in climate-resilient and low-carbon construction practices.Regional variations also remain pronounced. Demand in Delhi NCR is muted due to construction restrictions aimed at controlling pollution, while Southern India is expected to see seasonal upticks post-Pongal. Maharashtra’s recovery may be deferred until after municipal elections in January. Such uneven patterns underline the challenges of balancing sustainable urban growth with profitability in energy-intensive industries.
As the sector navigates these headwinds, industry experts suggest monitoring price trends, input costs, and regional demand cycles closely. Cement firms’ ability to manage operational efficiencies and regulatory compliance will be critical for supporting equitable urban expansion, infrastructure resilience, and the transition toward environmentally responsible construction.
