A developing system over the Bay of Bengal is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm by Monday evening and could become a severe cyclonic storm by Wednesday, bringing heavy rain and strong winds to parts of South Bengal, including Kolkata, the Alipore weather office has said.
The system over the south-east Bay of Bengal became a marked low-pressure area on Saturday. A cyclonic circulation associated with it extends up to 7.6 kilometres above sea level. According to the forecast cited by Anandabazar, the system is expected to develop into a deep depression on Sunday as it moves gradually north-westwards over the sea.
The depression is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the central parts of the southern and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal by Monday evening. It may continue moving north-westwards after formation. The weather office has said the system could strengthen further and take the form of a severe cyclonic storm by early Wednesday.
Wind speeds are expected to increase as the system develops. Winds around the low-pressure system may reach 40 to 55 kilometres per hour, rising to 50 to 60 kilometres per hour when it becomes a deep depression. After cyclonic storm formation, wind speeds over the sea could reach 60 to 85 kilometres per hour. If the system intensifies into a severe cyclonic storm, gusts may reach 105 kilometres per hour, with sustained winds of 85 to 95 kilometres per hour over the sea.
The system is expected to bring rain to Kolkata from Wednesday, with rainfall likely to continue at least until Saturday. The city may experience thundershowers and gusty winds of 30 to 40 kilometres per hour, with isolated areas recording wind speeds of 40 to 50 kilometres per hour. The forecast indicates rain across nearly all districts of South Bengal, although heavy rain is not expected in Kolkata at present.
South 24 Parganas and East Midnapore may receive heavy rain between Thursday and Saturday, with rainfall totals of 7 to 11 centimetres. Howrah, Jhargram and West Midnapore are expected to receive heavy rain on Friday and Saturday. No warning has currently been issued for fishermen at sea, according to the report.
The forecast has different implications for northern West Bengal. Darjeeling, Kalimpong, Jalpaiguri and Alipurduar are expected to remain mainly dry, although isolated rain may occur in Darjeeling and Kalimpong on Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions are expected across the north thereafter, with no significant temperature change forecast.
In South Bengal, temperatures may rise slightly during the period of rain and strong winds. The weather office has forecast no change in temperatures over the next three days, followed by a rise of two to three degrees over the subsequent two days. Kolkata recorded a minimum temperature of 21.7 degrees Celsius on Sunday morning, 1.4 degrees above normal, while Saturday’s maximum temperature was 29 degrees Celsius, 1.6 degrees below normal. Further updates on the system’s track, intensity and coastal impact are expected as it develops over the next few days.
