A developing low-pressure system over the southeast Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into the season’s third cyclonic storm around November 16 and move towards the north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha coast, potentially keeping Tamil Nadu away from its main rain-bearing region, the India Meteorological Department said.
The low-pressure area formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal at 5.30 am on Friday and remained over the same region at 8.30 am, according to the IMD. It is very likely to move northwestwards and become a well-marked low-pressure area by November 14.
The system is then expected to intensify into a depression over the same region around the morning of November 15. Weather models indicate that it could strengthen further into a cyclonic storm over the central Bay of Bengal by the evening of November 16.
If it develops into a named cyclone, it may be called Akvan, a name contributed by Iran. The eventual track has not yet been established, and the system’s movement and intensity will continue to be monitored as it develops over the Bay of Bengal.
The current forecast path points towards the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coast. That trajectory would keep Tamil Nadu away from the system’s main rain-bearing region, although changes in the track could alter local rainfall conditions. The forecast is therefore relevant to coastal administrations, disaster-management agencies and cities preparing for heavy rain or strong winds.
The system would be the third cyclonic storm of the northeast monsoon season to bypass Tamil Nadu if it follows the projected route. Earlier, cyclonic storms Arnab and Murasu made landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast.
For Tamil Nadu, the immediate significance is that the developing system may not bring its principal impacts to the state. However, the IMD’s forecast remains subject to revision as the low-pressure area consolidates, intensifies and begins moving north-northwestwards. The next key milestones are its expected strengthening into a well-marked low-pressure area by November 14, a depression on November 15 and a possible cyclonic storm by November 16.
