July is expected to end with a 9-10% excess rainfall across India, bringing the season’s total to 2% above normal. However, this overall increase in rainfall hides a significant disparity in distribution. While central and southern India have received abundant rain, the northwest and eastern regions are facing considerable deficits.
At the midpoint of the monsoon season, 36% of India’s districts—267 out of 742—have recorded deficient or severely deficient rainfall, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) as of July 30. These deficient districts include all 24 districts in Jharkhand, all 15 districts in Gangetic Bengal, 33 out of 38 districts in Bihar, 19 out of 22 districts each in Punjab and Haryana, five out of nine districts in Delhi, nine out of 12 districts in Himachal Pradesh, and 15 out of 20 districts in Jammu & Kashmir. Of these 267 districts, 232 have reported rainfall deficiencies ranging from 20% to 59% below normal, while 35 districts have experienced severe deficiencies with deficits of 60% or more. In contrast, 245 districts have reported normal rainfall, and 230 have received either excess or significantly excess rainfall.
The deficient districts are primarily concentrated in two regions: one in eastern India and another in the northwest. This pattern indicates consistently poor rainfall in these areas. Additionally, smaller clusters of deficient districts are found in southern Rajasthan and several parts of the northeast. According to a veteran meteorologist and former secretary of the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, these areas remain largely dry partly due to poor rainfall in June, which ended with an 11% countrywide deficit. Furthermore, in July, the monsoon trough has predominantly been south of its normal position. This deviation typically brings ample rainfall to central India but often results in deficits in the northwest and regions such as Bihar, Jharkhand, and Gangetic Bengal. As the monsoon has been in an active phase for over a month, experts anticipate a lull in August, which could exacerbate the existing rainfall disparities across the country. This uneven distribution poses challenges for agriculture, water resources, and overall economic stability in the affected regions.
