Amid severe heatwave conditions, Ahmedabad has witnessed a significant surge in mortality rates, with a study revealing a 30% increase in all-cause deaths when temperatures exceed 40°C. Conducted by international researchers, including experts from the Indian Institute of Public Health (IIPH), Gandhinagar, the study underscores the severe public health implications of extreme heat. The
comprehensive analysis examined 6.84 lakh deaths recorded in Ahmedabad between 2002 and 2018, correlating this data with weather patterns sourced from a European institute. The findings indicated that the average daily death rate in the city is 2.19 per 1 lakh population. However, this rate escalates sharply during periods of sustained high temperatures.
Currently, Ahmedabad and several other regions in Gujarat are enduring intense heatwave conditions. The city recently recorded its highest temperature of the season at 45.3°C, marking the fifth consecutive day with temperatures exceeding 44°C. This figure is 3.3 degrees above the normal maximum temperature for this time of year. The minimum temperature also remains elevated at 30.6°C, which is 2.7 degrees higher than usual.
Other cities in Gujarat, including Gandhinagar, Kandla, Amreli, and Surendranagar, have also reported temperatures above 45°C. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that the heatwave will persist until at least May 25, affecting various districts such as Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Patan, Rajkot, Porbandar, Junagadh, Bhavnagar, Surat, and Valsad. A ‘yellow alert’ has been issued for many coastal districts, indicating high temperatures and humidity levels.
The heatwave has significantly impacted daily life in Ahmedabad. Streets are largely deserted during the afternoon as residents shift their activities to the cooler morning and evening hours. Physicians have noted an increase in heat-related health issues, with a particular spike in cases of heatstroke and other heat-induced ailments.
The study, titled “Characterizing the effects of extreme heat events on all-cause mortality: A case study in Ahmedabad city of India, 2002–2018,” published in the Elsevier journal Urban Climate, highlights that women are especially vulnerable to extreme heat, with the highest mortality risk occurring on the same day of exposure. Since 2010, extreme heat has been directly attributed to 106 deaths in the city. However, experts believe that the true annual mortality rate due to extreme temperatures could be closer to 300.
Professor Dileep Mavalankar, former director of IIPH-G, said that the majority of the deaths are caused by heat stroke when attributed by authorities. “In such instances, a person dies due to heat shock that severely affects internal organs including heart and kidneys. However, one needs to take into account the cases where the heat could have caused mortality indirectly – someone with existing conditions can die due to complications caused by extreme heat. Such instances could be as high as 90% of total deaths,” he said.
As Ahmedabad grapples with these extreme weather conditions, the findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive public health strategies to mitigate the impact of heatwaves. Enhanced public awareness, improved healthcare response, and adaptive infrastructure are critical to safeguarding the population against the growing threat of extreme temperatures.
